According to feedback from some cotton trading enterprises and Xinjiang ginning mills, due to the slow progress of cotton spot sales in 2024/25 (but the accumulated processing volume and the accumulated public inspection volume in Xinjiang increased rapidly on a year-on-year basis), the continuous decline in the operating rate of domestic textile enterprises, and the obvious characteristics of cotton consumption in the off-season, the basis difference of Xinjiang cotton in storage warehouses both inside and outside Xinjiang has shown a slight downward trend since the middle of November.
The basis difference of "Shuang 29" machine picking cotton in northern Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other inland provinces decreased from 1500-1700 yuan/ton in October to 1300-1500 yuan/ton; In 2024/25, the basis difference of "Double 29" machine picking cotton of Xinjiang Supervision Warehouse will fall from 750-900 yuan/ton to 650-750 yuan/ton. Some large and medium-sized cotton trading enterprises are active in purchasing on the basis of spot price and post spot price as the basis of Xinjiang ginning mills decreases. On the whole, it is difficult for most Xinjiang ginning plants to achieve the "short, flat and fast" operation of cotton purchase, processing and sales in 2024/25, and they can only be forced to lengthen the delivery period and payment recovery period of lint cotton.
The cotton regulatory libraries in Urumqi, Shihezi, Kuitun, Akesu and other places said that since the middle of November, the volume of cotton shipped out by truck has continued the momentum of month on month and year on year growth. Textile cotton mainly flows to consumer areas such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Hubei, and the southern Xinjiang cotton (civilian cotton) mainly flows to provinces such as Sichuan, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Henan, and Guizhou.
In 2024/25, the number of quotations for Xinjiang cotton inland warehouse bills is increasing, which tends to be in line with the price of old cotton in the previous year. According to the survey, by the end of November, Xinjiang's cotton resources in 2024/25 in mainland China were mainly hand picked cotton in East Xinjiang, Aksu, Kashi and other places, and a small amount of machine picked cotton in North Xinjiang, while machine picked cotton resources in 2024/25 in South Xinjiang were relatively scarce. From November 21 to 22, the quotation of 31 level "Double 29" hand picked cotton in the mainland warehouse was concentrated at 15500-15800 yuan/ton; Grade 21 "Double 28" (including Dan 29 and Dan 30) hand picked cotton is priced at about 16000 yuan/ton, but Nanjiang Ginning Mills generally reflect that there is no profit or even a small loss.
In 2024, the sale of Xinjiang seed cotton will come to an end. At present, there are only sporadic purchases in some regions, and the number of daily purchases will decline sharply from the peak. This year, the sale period of seed cotton in various regions is relatively concentrated. The mainstream purchase price of machine picked seed cotton will remain at 6.2-6.3 yuan/kg, and the cost of machine picked lint will remain at about 14500-14800 yuan/ton. In addition to the quality and lint percentage of seed cotton in very few regions, the purchase price of seed cotton is relatively stable, and the gap between regions is not large. The sales price of cotton seeds in Xinjiang this week also remained stable.
At present, Xinjiang cotton enterprises mainly focus on cotton processing, and most of their sales adopt the point price model of futures+basis. Due to the embarrassing position of Zheng Mian recently, most cotton enterprises hope to sell at least half of the lint before the end of the year, but under the unknown direction, the enthusiasm of the hedger and purchaser is not high, and the actual turnover is small.
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Post time: 2024-11-25 13:52